Mathematical Modelling

Mathematical modelling of infectious disease is an efficient and powerful tool for both understanding transmission patterns and predicting the potential impact of interventions. Recently, models for VL have been developed within the NTD Modelling Consortium, giving insight into the transmission dynamics, gaps in data and policy implications. In this project, we will use modelling for two outcomes: (1) provide a short-term prediction framework that can be used to support the maintenance of elimination in real time, and (2) generate models of transmission dynamics that can be used to support the move towards zero transmission.

Chapman et al. 2020. Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis. PNAS  For web version, please see   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002731117  

Nightingale et al. 2020. A spatio-temporal approach to short-term forecasting of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India. PLoS NTD 

Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium (NTD Modelling)

LSHTM Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID)

Infectious Disease Modelling Risk Mapper (RiskMap)

Institute for Disease Modelling (IDMOD)

LSHTM:

Prof Graham Medley 

Dr Lloyd Chapman 

Ms Emily Nightingale

VCRC:

Dr S. Subramanian

Dr. P. Jambulingam

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)

Vector Control Research Centre (VCRC)

National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP)

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)