Mathematical Modelling

Spacial model diagramming susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered stages

Project Description


Mathematical modelling of infectious disease is an efficient and powerful tool for both understanding transmission patterns and predicting the potential impact of interventions. Recently, models for VL have been developed within the NTD Modelling Consortium, giving insight into the transmission dynamics, gaps in data and policy implications. In this project, we will use modelling for two outcomes: (1) provide a short-term prediction framework that can be used to support the maintenance of elimination in real time, and (2) generate models of transmission dynamics that can be used to support the move towards zero transmission.


Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium (NTD Modelling)

LSHTM Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID)

Infectious Disease Modelling Risk Mapper (RiskMap)

Institute for Disease Modelling (IDMOD)

Project Membership


Prof Graham Medley 

Dr Lloyd Chapman 

Ms Emily Nightingale

Ms Natalie Dial 


Dr S. Subramanian

Dr. P. Jambulingam

Implementing Partners

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)

Vector Control Research Centre (VCRC)

National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP)

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)